The Bull run begins: But not for Bitcoin?

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Good afternoon, and welcome to the Cryptopolitan Daily.

March 18– Bitcoin, aka ‘digital gold,’ now finds itself squaring off against its long-standing rival— the real thing: gold.

Gold– which has been long bashed by the crypto bros, as it is less appealing and too traditional for their portfolio.

But in today’s uncertain market, the real question is: where’s the smart money flowing now?

Let's analyse.

Gold, which has been the go-to choice for investors during uncertain times, seems to be outperforming Bitcoin as a safe haven, a glance at the charts tell that gold has outperformed Bitcoin gaining 40% over the year compared to Bitcoin’s 26%.

Bitcoin made an all time high this year touching $109,114.88 in early 2025 due to euphoria in the market, due to the win of the crypto president and the promises made, of which some were kept.

But it wasn't just Bitcoin that made an all time high this year, gold has quietly reached a historic milestone of its own.

On March 14, 2025, gold broke through the $3,000 mark for the first time, hitting an all-time high of $3,004.71 per ounce— and it didn’t stop there, touching the $3,034 mark and inching towards $3,035 per ounce showing a strong uptrend.

According to a chart by famous analyst Northstar, Bitcoin has dropped below a key support level against gold, a support it held for the past 12 years signaling bearish sentiment amongst investors for BTC and a preference for gold.

What do the ETFs say?

According to data by World Gold Council Global physically-backed gold ETFs recorded robust inflows of $9.4 billion in February— the highest monthly total since March 2022.

While gold ETFs saw their strongest inflows in nearly two years, spot Bitcoin ETFs painted a contrasting picture. February 2025 witnessed over $2 billion in outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs in just six days, signaling a wave of cautious sentiment.

The most dramatic exit came on February 25, when a staggering $937 million was pulled out in a single day– marking the largest daily outflow on record. However, the bearish streak broke briefly on February 28, with a modest $94.3 million inflow, offering a sign of relief amid broader market uncertainty.

What’s behind this changing investor sentiment?

To understand the investor sentiment we must understand the key investors in gold.

Central banks and other institutional investors were responsible for about 15% of the total gold purchased in the period from 2023-2024.

Are central banks behind this gold rush?

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Struyven noted that U.S. commodity prices are surging, driven largely by “tariff expectations.”

Gold’s recent rally isn’t just about market sentiment, it’s also about rising geopolitical and economic fears. According to Struyven, concerns over the US driven trade war and inflation are pushing investors toward metals like gold and copper.

Interestingly, while commodities usually move in sync, we’re now seeing a split— gold and copper are climbing, but oil prices are slipping, signaling a shift in how markets are reacting to global uncertainty.

Read more about Struyven’s take here.

But don’t count Bitcoin out just yet.

Interestingly, over the past month, Bitcoin has been moving more in sync with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ than with gold. That’s not necessarily a bad thing.

It signals that Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed alongside more advanced and dynamic financial instruments, rather than being paired with a traditional store of value like gold.

So maybe it’s time to ask ourselves: is this gold vs. Bitcoin comparison still valid?

Sure, Bitcoin is often called digital gold, but let’s not forget, these two assets serve entirely different purposes. You can craft a ring with gold, but with Bitcoin, you can move value across the globe in seconds.

They may both be stores of value— but they’re playing in very different leagues.

Sure gold is outperforming Bitcoin this year, but what does history tell us?

When analyzing annual returns from 2012 to 2023, Bitcoin has consistently outperformed gold, securing higher returns in 9 out of 12 years.

• In 2013, Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed by 5,189%, while gold suffered a 30% decline.

• In 2020, a year marked by economic uncertainty, Bitcoin delivered a 270% return, while gold managed a respectable but comparatively modest 14%.

• In 2024, gold rose by 15%, yet Bitcoin’s YTD returns are over 120%, driven by factors such as ETF adoption, US elections and rising institutional interest.

Let’s discuss ETFs.

Bitcoin ETFs attracted $15 Billion in inflows in their first year. By comparison, gold ETFs took nearly a decade to hit similar numbers.

And guess what? The gold ETF launched in 2005. The Bitcoin one? 2024.

While analysing numerous charts and reading articles we sometimes tend to forget a big argument for Bitcoin that will always differentiate it from gold— “Bitcoin isn’t just an investment. It’s a movement.”

It empowers individuals—breaking away from centralized control, enabling financial sovereignty, and giving freedom back to the people.

Gold may still shine as the classic safe haven, but Bitcoin is rewriting the rules when it comes to redistributing wealth.

At the end of the day, it’s not about picking sides. The real winners are the investors who understand the strengths of both— and know how to make each one work for them.

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