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  • 📉 This doesn’t feel like a crash, and that’s the point

📉 This doesn’t feel like a crash, and that’s the point

PLUS: Extreme fear without chaos, ETF investors underwater, crypto stocks slide, banks push back on stablecoins, and why silence has preceded past bottoms.

Bitcoin has now fallen for four consecutive months, after tumbling 13 percent in January. 

Prices briefly dipped to $74,500, and across the board, the picture looks bleak.

  • The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 14, well into “extreme fear.”

  • Spot ETFs are bleeding red.

  • Shares of both Coinbase and Gemini have tanked.

  • Even gold and silver, “safe havens” from market busts, had 12% and 30% declines, respectively.

But here’s the twist:

Nobody’s panicking. They’re just… quiet. There’s no FTX. No Luna. No 3AC.

No new villain. Just fatigue.

Retail has stepped back. Leverage is gone. Trading volumes have dried up.

Long positions in excess of $2.2 billion evaporated in 24 hours, and yet, the market hardly batted an eye.

If anything, it’s too quiet.

But, this has happened before

  • March 2020: Bitcoin fell to 5K. 

  • Nov 2022: Post-FTX wipeout. BTC at $15.6K.

Moral: We have seen this before, everything ending…until it doesn’t.

Extremely scary was how you knew when you hit the bottom in both instances. Today’s pain is a different kind of pain: less chaos, more indifference. And that could be the setup.

What may be next and why not all is doom.

ETF outflows are taking all the headlines. But the smart money hasn’t left: it’s just gone to the sidelines for now.

  • Michael Saylor adds another $1.25B of BTC to microstrategy holdings

  • BlackRock's going big on tokenization, not stepping back

  • The CLARITY Act is gaining bipartisan traction in the Senate

And, historically, the market bottoms when fear is at its worst.

In essence: the macro may be sloppy, but the basics are still being developed quietly behind the scenes.

This is no ordinary bear market. It could be the quiet re-accumulation phase that appears to be disinterest. Until it isn’t.

📊 Market Watch

📉 Crypto stocks are bleeding

Stocks in Coinbase, Gemini and Bullish have fallen as much as 55% over the past three months: with not a single scandal or hack. Just disappearing volume.

When fees are based on trades, no activity = no revenue. Coinbase Q4 trading volumes probably fell 40% YoY, and January was much worse.

The bigger picture? Bitcoin is down for the fourth straight month, its longest losing streak since 2018. Traders are simply tuning out.

🕵️ XRP, Epstein and Gensler: What’s happening here?

New Epstein emails refer to former SEC Head Gary Gensler, and XRP backers are plotting a conspiracy theory In one of 2014, email exchange a Ripple was referred to as “bad for the ecosystem.” A second suggests Gensler was “put” in academic positions that Epstein had helped mold.

No hard proof. But to XRP bulls, the attention only underscores the notion that Ripple was never merely a side project.

💸 Bitcoin ETFs: 62 percent are now losing money

Investors pulled $1.49 billion out of Bitcoin ETFs last week, and BlackRock’s IBIT was drained of $528 million in a single day.

More than 62% of spot BTC ETF buyers are now underwater: a sharp turn from January when many were in the money.

ETPs tracking ETH and SOL also faced steep outflows. But in a surprise move, XRP-linked ETFs drew $16.7M, the only major crypto to record net inflows.

 đŸĽ Top tweets

 đŸ‘€ Are you watching

Stablecoin wars just escalated.

Crypto execs came to the White House this week with a plan to compromise. Banks didn’t.

Bank lobbyists would not give on stablecoin yields — no interest, no how. They cautioned that allowing crypto companies to pay yields could result in a shadow banking system and drain trillions in deposits.

Behind the scenes:

  • Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini do currently reward stablecoins.

  • Banks would like that banned: they call it shadow banking.

  • Treasury reports raise possibility of $6.6T exiting banks for stablecoins.

This isn’t just about yield. It’s about control.

Crypto companies are seeking access to Fed payment rails. They’re hoping to create stablecoins backed by real reserves. And they’ve already raised $193M+ to help friendly lawmakers.

Trump supports them. So do some megabanks… quietly. SocGen, BNP Paribas, Citi even Goldman are testing out their own stablecoin infrastructure.

The real fight? If crypto rewires the financial system or just keeps poking it on its outer edge.

The next stablecoin meeting? The White House needs both sides back with actual proposals. Until then, no bill’s moving.

🧭 Project Spotlight

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Who’s it for?

  • First-timers tired of clunky CEX flows

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