🇺🇸 Shutdown Ends, Markets Hold Their Breath

Global markets teetered lower into Wednesday evening as investors began to digest two big events in less than 24 hours.

Donald Trump calling an end to the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, and the first wave of market reactions putting pressure on equities, currencies and commodities alike.

• Stocks take a break after Dow’s record streak

  U.S. stock futures fell after the Dow rallied to new highs in a rotation out of tech stocks and into value names such as health care.

  Dow futures: –0.1%

  S&P 500: –0.2%

  Nasdaq 100: –0.3%

  Investors are now trying to determine what the end of the shutdown means for Fed policy, with a muddled view due to delayed economic data. The rally’s intact, conviction is less so.

• FX markets, witness to the greater shock

  Yen plunges to record of 179.50 per euro and then rebounds after new Japanese prime minister encourages BOJ to ease pace of rate hikes.

  The yen weakened to 155.02 per dollar, not far from the February low.

  The Aussie dollar surged to $0.6563 on strong jobs figures.

  British pound weakened to $1.3123 after soft labor numbers and renewed rumors of the uprising inside to oust PM Keir Starmer.

• Gold gains as rate-cut bets increase

  Spot gold was near $4,220/oz, up nearly 5 per cent for the week while punters priced in the economic fallout of a six-week shutdown and the increased odds of Fed easing. This is already gold’s best year since 1979, with central banks notably China, buying aggressively to counterbalance geopolitical and fiscal risk.

• Asia higher as it opens, except one big exception

  Markets in Asia mostly rose on relief that the U.S. government is finally back online:

  Nikkei: +0.13%

  Topix: +0.62% (record high)

  Kosdaq: +0.79%

  CSI 300: +0.95%

  But SoftBank tumbled 5%+ for a second consecutive day after confirming that it had ditched its entire $5.8B stake in Nvidia to pay for its OpenAI bet, action that continues to blow the minds of AI bulls.

670,000 U.S. workers ordered to return to work

Moments after signing the bill, the White House instructed 670,000 furloughed federal workers to return Thursday morning to work, where many of them had been ordered to stay home without pay for weeks.

Trump immediately revives filibuster fight

On his way out of the Oval Office, Trump stirred a new push to kill the Senate filibuster (The Senate tradition of unlimited debate has allowed for the use of the filibuster, a loosely defined term for action designed to prolong debate and delay or prevent a vote on a bill, resolution, amendment, or other debatable question.) because it’s the only way to stop future shutdowns, he argued.

What’s next?

The bill spares a wholesale shutdown of federal operations, but creates yet another funding cliff for Jan. 30, so Washington’s instability may well return sooner than financial markets expect.

For the moment, the world is soothed. But investors also know that the next fight is already on the calendar.

High earners won’t get Trump’s $2,000 tariff rebate.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the plan being drafted would cap eligibility at Americans making under $100K, adding that nothing is final yet.

The comments add clarity to Trump’s earlier promise of a nationwide “tariff dividend”, a proposal critics say doesn’t add up.

IEEPA tariffs have only generated $90B to date, far short of the $300B+ needed even with the income cap.

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