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- đ¨ BTC dumps to $85K on BOJ shock
đ¨ BTC dumps to $85K on BOJ shock
PLUS: Volumes plunge 27%, BOJ yields spike, ETH undervalued $9K, ZEC crashes 21% and Hayes roasts Tether.
Crypto markets had their weakest month for trading since June in November. Hereâs what happened:
Spot volumes dropped across major exchanges
Spot volumes on centralized exchanges dropped to $1.59 trillion in the month, down 26.7% from October, according to CryptoQuant. Binance had the highest lead with $599.34B, and was followed byâthat of $810.44B.
Bybit ($105.8B), Gate. io ($96.75B) and Coinbase ($93.41B) traded around 10% lower, in what was a sign of moreâwidespread trader fatigue after weeks of liquidations, macro shocks, and thinner risk appetite.
On-chain activity wasnât spared either.
DEX volume declined $397.78B in total (lowest since June), while Uniswap ($79.98B) and PancakeSwap ($70.57B), finished lower off of their October highs. The DEX-to-CEX ratio fell to 15.73%, suggesting a small return to centralizedâplatforms as volatility increased.
Macro Shock: Japan rattles rest of market
Global markets were shaken by an unexpected tremor on Monday when the Bank of Japan suggestedâit is turning hawkish, jolting a global bond selloff.
Japanâs 10-year yield surged toâthe highest close since 2008
USâ10-year yields rose to 4.04% (+3bps) in sympathy
Dealers are now pricing in an 80% chance of aâBOJ rate rise Dec 19 (vs <25% just one week ago)
But, why does this matter for crypto?
Thatâs because Japanese capitalâis a large buyer of U.S. Treasuries.
If suddenly the BOJ is hiking rates, some of that dollar liquidity may flow back to Japan, have a tighter effect onâthe rest of global liquidity, at a moment that crypto is already having lower volumes.
Wall street opens flat after a big November
U.S. futures opened muted Sunday night:
Dow: â18 points
S&P 500: flat
Nasdaq-100: flat
This follows a powerful November:
S&P 500: +3.7%
Nasdaq: +4.9%
Dow: +3.2%
Historically, December averages a 1% gain, making it the third-best month for equities since 1950, but markets now face a rare tug-of-war between U.S. Fed dovishness and Japanâs tightening shock.
Crypto sells off in Asia
When Asia opened Monday, everything fell apart at once:
Bitcoin dived down to $84,800 (-6.7%)
Ethereum fell 7% to ~$2,800
Solana dropped 7.8%
The dip follows BTCâs brutalâ16.7% selloff in November, which was kicked off with the October leverage wipeout where $19B worth of positions were liquidated.
đ¤ Quick Explainer: Why everything dumped at once
Crypto didnât crash in isolation.
It followed the same global risk-off wave that hit equities, bonds, and futures:
BOJâs hawkish turn â higher global yields
Higher yields â lower liquidity
Lower liquidity â crypto gets hit first
Low November volumes â deeper price swings
This is macro, not a crypto-specific breakdown.
đłď¸ Poll: Where does Bitcoin go next?Whatâs your view after the Asia-led selloff? |
đ Market Watch

1ď¸âŁ Ethereumâs valuation gap widens
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says ETH is currently being undervalued in 10 out of the 12 major valuation modelers, with theâcomposite fair value hitting at around $4,535. Metcalfeâs Lawâputs ETH over $9,500 and staking-based models arrive at something in the vicinity of $9,000.
2ď¸âŁ New York to launch $12,000 USDCâincome pilot
160 residents in the South Bronx and East Harlem are now getting USDC ($12,000 worth) over five months, $800 every month plus an $8,000 lump sum.
The nonprofit behind the program, which has received backing from Coinbase, is testing whether lines of crypto provide a more efficient way forâcash aid to be delivered and if beneficiaries regard digital dollars differently than bank transfers. Early feedback is that there has been strong adoption because of bankingârestrictions in the region.
3ď¸âŁ The October 11 crash whale makes big a move
The whale who went short before the October 11 wipeout made a reappearance, this time depositing 55,240 ETH into Aave and borrowing $70 million worth of USDT before promptly transferring these to Binance.
The trader who is famously linked to time market pivots now has close to $176 million in assets. Another purse pulled 42,000 ETH aâfew minutes later leading to rumours of some attempting coordinated buying.
đ Charts our analyst is watching
After weeks of defying gravity, Zcash fell a staggering 21% in hours, breaking under $440 and reaching as low as $340 duringâthe AsiaâEurope selloff. A total of more than $6M worth of longs were eliminated, also challenging the coinâs success as an outlier in this market.
ZECâs surge above $700 was neverâsupported by healthy spot demand. This week wasâa wake up call: when BTC breaks, ZEC doesn't swim.
What triggered the collapse?
Vitalik Buterinâs very publicâcall for Zcash community members to say no to token-based governance did not help an already precarious arrangement.
Open interestâcollapsed under the $500M mark as shorts piled in, more than 45% of all positions are short right now.
Big Hyperliquid whales flipped too: Trading big on the short side and some payingâdeep negative funding to stay in their bet.
Is there a bounce setup?
Longsâwere nearly fully liquidated to $360. Should BTC find its footing,âZEC could attempt a reflexive bounce in the medium to low $400s, though the sentiment has flipped.
Polymarketâs prediction markets for ZEC reaching $1,000 by end-of-year haveâdropped from 42% â 8%.
đ¤ Top Tweets
Here are Cryptopolitanâs top picks:
đ Culture Watch
Arthur Hayes calls out Tether, Crypto Twitter reacts.
In a viral post, the BitMEX co-founder claimed Tether is effectively running a giant interest-rate macro trade, and the entire USDT ecosystem could face solvency questions if the bet goes wrong.
đ Community Poll: Do you think Tetherâs BTC + gold strategy is risky or smart? |
Monday headline picks :)

Bank of America flags Nvidia, Palantir, Robinhood as top âbuy and holdâ picks
Grayscale set to launch U.S.âs first spot Chainlink ETF this week
Japanâs Sony to launch dollarâbacked stablecoin by 2026 for games, anime payments
Tetherâs balance sheet under fire as Hayes flags solvency risks
BlackRock says Bitcoin now tops revenueâŻcharts as IBIT nearsâŻ$100 billion AUM
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