🥊 Bitcoin’s sharpest flush since 2022

Bitcoin just endured its sharpest flush since 2022

The last month hasn’t just been “volatility.” It’s been real pain.

Bitcoin recently saw its most brutal capitulation phase since 2022. The 30-day Realized Cap has snapped deeply negative:

People aren’t merely watching losses on a screen. They’re locking them in.

The drop from around $90,000 down to the $60,000s didn’t happen in one bad day. There was relentless selling from all corners of the market.

• ETF outflows

• Whales trimming positions

• Long-term holders finally giving in

• Miners selling more aggressively

• Liquidations adding fuel

That wasn’t panic in one pocket. It was pressure everywhere.

The cushion is gone

In October, almost anyone who had ever owned Bitcoin stood to profit. More than 99% of the supply was comfortably in profit above cost basis.

Today, that figure is closer to 55%.

That changes behavior.

In a market where nearly everything is green, dips are bought promptly. Rallies get sold when half the market is underwater.

It’s the reason Bitcoin can’t seem to break free of $67,000. For every push toward $70K, there’s supply from people simply trying to get even.

There’s no fresh wave of liquidity

The stimulus money is out, and now comes the hangover.

During previous drawdowns, heavy selling was often accompanied by a lot of stablecoin inflows. New money would be minted and sit on exchanges, waiting to buy the dip. This round, the supply of stablecoins has stayed flat.

• No surge of fresh USDT.

• No big wave of USDC sitting around to deploy.

It seems that the market is recycling the same capital, not drawing it from new flows.

That makes recoveries harder.

Who’s actually selling?

It’s not just retail fear.

A few of these big wallets appear to be sending BTC to exchanges. It seems that miner pools are paying out more of their rewards. Liquidations have added forced selling into the mix as well.

The Fear & Greed Index is wallowing in extreme fear. That generally means exhaustion is gestating. But exhaustion doesn’t always spell bottom.

So is this the bottom?

Bitcoin is about 45 percent below its high. It's been four months since we saw the peak.

There’s a reason: Historically, Bitcoin spends longer in the sideways mode than most people anticipate. Long consolidation phases are normal. Quick recoveries are not.

We’re going to face a band of holders around breakeven even if we do get a bounce. That supply can put a lid on upside for a while.

A few are talking about $50,000 before things get put right. Others believe the worst selling is already over.

There’s no clear answer yet.

What this feels like‌

This doesn’t feel like euphoria. It doesn’t even have that taint of complete self-immolation.

It really reminds me of a market that got excessively out over its skis, flushed out leverage and now is absorbing losses.

The real question here isn’t whether Bitcoin can stage a rally. It’s whether enough sellers have finally been cleared out.

It currently feels like the market is still digesting that process.

The internet has found a new memecoin lore. This time it’s a monkey.

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