A New Macro-Bitcoin Correlation is Forming

Liquidity. Tariffs. Bitcoin. A new macro correlation is brewing

A 90-day pause on U.S. tariffs just gave crypto its strongest rally in months — and Bitcoin is reaping the rewards

The global crypto market added nearly $250B in value last month, powered by easing macro pressure and fresh signs of institutional confidence. Binance’s latest market report reveals a 9.9% rebound in total market cap for April — a sharp reversal from the trade-war-driven slump in March.

And no surprise — Bitcoin led the charge.

With uncertainty clouding fiat markets, BTC’s “digital gold” status is back in play:

• BTC dominance surged to 63%, its highest since 2021

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew heavier inflows than ETH products

• Investors are rotating out of risk and into conviction
  

But here’s the wildcard:

M2 money supply across the U.S., EU, China, and Japan hit a record $93T — and Bitcoin followed. Historically, global liquidity and BTC price have danced around each other. Now, with liquidity on the rise again, a new correlation may be in the making — one that could reshape how BTC responds to monetary policy in real time.

Also notable:

• CeFi startups led 41.4% of April’s fundraising, rebounding after DeFi’s extended spotlight

• User-facing apps like DEXs and stablecoins now dominate fee generation, with stablecoins alone accounting for 47.2% of all on-chain fees

The takeaway: This wasn’t just a bounce. It was a sentiment shift — one powered by liquidity, policy relief, and Bitcoin’s return to narrative dominance.

📊 Market Watch:

The fed hits pause — But the tightening isn’t over

The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady this week — but made it clear: they’re not done.

At its latest policy meeting, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking a cautious pause in its tightening campaign. While the economy is still expanding at a “solid pace,” inflation remains persistent and labor markets are holding firm — creating a tough balancing act.

But the tone has shifted.

The Fed now warns that both inflation and unemployment risks have increased, signaling growing uncertainty. In their words:

Key takeaways from the meeting:

• No rate hike — but no pivot either

• Balance sheet reduction continues (Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities)

• Next moves will depend entirely on data

• Fed is prepared to shift policy quickly if risks emerge

The message is clear: policymakers are in wait-and-see mode. They are not promising any easing, but they are keeping the door open for fast adjustments.

For crypto, this adds another variable. With global M2 liquidity rising and inflation concerns lingering, the Fed’s cautious stance may prolong market indecision — or trigger sharp moves on the next macro data print.

📜 Regulation Watch:

“Embrace crypto — or be left behind,” says Senator Lummis

Senator Cynthia Lummis is sounding the alarm: the U.S. must lead on crypto — or lose its edge.

As the Senate prepares for a potential vote on the GENIUS Act, one of crypto’s most vocal allies in Washington, Senator Cynthia Lummis, made her position clear: digital assets are not a threat — they are the future.

Speaking on the Senate floor and through various public remarks, Lummis reiterated that without clear legislation, innovation will leave U.S. shores. The GENIUS Act, which she championed, aims to create the country’s first comprehensive framework for stablecoins and digital assets.

Key highlights by @CPOfficialitx

Lummis, now chairing the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, stressed that passing this legislation is essential if the U.S. wants to retain financial leadership in the next era.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed her urgency.

Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, Bessent stated that the U.S. must become the “premier destination” for digital assets — and that clear market structures are the key.

He also warned of the risks of inaction, pointing to the “renegade ecosystem” that emerged under past administrations, where illicit actors flourished in regulatory vacuums.

With bipartisan support and growing pressure from inside the Treasury, the GENIUS Act could become a turning point — or a missed opportunity — for American crypto leadership.

Market-moving headlines 🔥

Join the Conversation!

We'd love to hear your thoughts and comments. Join our community and stay updated with the latest trends and discussions in crypto.

Twitter: @CPOfficialtx

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/cryptopolitan

Telegram Channel: t.me/CryptopolitanOfficial 

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/cryptopolitan.official

Linkedin: https://uk.linkedin.com/company/cryptopolitan 

Found this useful? Forward it to a crypto-curious friend 👉

News | Economy | Regulation | Price predictions